If you’re like me, you’ve been doing some rushing around this week, trying to put together some semblance of a Halloween costume.
I personally ended up just buying a Chewbacca adult onesie from Target.
Then again, compared to most people, I probably fall on the more extreme end of the apathy spectrum. (That’s also the reason I “forgot” candy for the trick-or-treaters.)
One thing I always notice during these last-minute whirlwind Halloween shopping sprees — and I’m sure I’m not the only one — is the overwhelming presence of Christmas decorations in October.
I couldn’t get five feet from the register without seeing Christmas trees, nutcrackers, and piles of tinsel.
As if we’re not already in a panic about Halloween and Thanksgiving, retail stores would like to remind us of even more holiday planning and shopping that needs to be done.
This trend seems to become more extreme with each passing year.
Markets are flooded with promotions and special offers. Stores extend their hours of operation, offer discount shipping, and enable plenty of other strategies to drive spending.
But here’s the thing…
It works.
The majority of retail chains generate between 20% and 30% of annual income from holiday sales alone, and October and November are typically the best months for retail stocks.
This year, the National Retail Federation expects an almost 4% increase in holiday retail sales and another 8% to 12% increase in sales online.
It happens every year, and this year is no different. Even with anemic global growth, the Chinese falling apart, and the Fed sending mixed signals about interest rates, we still expect to see a holiday season revival of the market. (Most recent reports don’t expect the Fed to raise interest rates until spring.)
Better yet, it will all be thanks to the American consumer.
Shopping Sprees Save the Day
The spending we do is the most important facet of the United States economy — we account for 70% of this country’s economic activity. This year, it looks like consumers will be the source of recovery during the holiday season. (Give yourself a high five.)
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released this graph, which shows that although U.S. economic growth has been moderate at best, consumer spending has been consistently rising since this quarter last year:
Even more encouraging were statistics from the Fed’s most recent quarterly report. It showed that, thanks to the robust housing market, American families now have almost 30% more wealth than they did in 2006 and almost 7% more wealth than in the first quarter of 2014.
“Sturdy household balance sheets should further galvanize consumer spending over the next several quarters, pushing real GDP growth up to a 3%-plus annualized pace.”
— Joseph LaVorgna, Chief U.S. Economist, Deutsche Bank
There are a handful of other encouraging indices, as well.
We can’t entirely attribute the positive horizon to low gasoline prices, but the fact that the Saudis have been saturating the world with oil has definitely influenced American consumers, who have saved more than $100 billion as a result of low energy costs this past year.
Personal incomes have increased by $609 billion, and household cash flow is up more than $420 billion. More people have jobs, with the unemployment rate down an entire percentage point.
Now we get to the real question:
How are consumers going to be spending this growing income?
Bargain Shopping
Like we mentioned earlier, it’s retail’s annual turn to take over the spending spotlight.
That means investigating bargain retail stores like Ross (NASDAQ: ROST) or TJ Maxx (NYSE: TJX) is worthwhile. It’s also a good idea to check out jewelers and electronics retailers.
However, online marketplaces have become an increasing threat to brick-and-mortar stores, and I think we all know why. Personally, I always try to avoid the chaos and brawls that ensue at Wal-Mart each year.
This doesn’t mean everyone should rush for shares of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), which are currently hovering around $600 each.
Just like the average holiday shopper, we always try to go for the bargain.
So instead of those big names, consider discount retailers like Overstock.com (NASDAQ: OSTK) or Zulily.com (NASDAQ: ZU). These might not show year-round growth, but they are more attainable for the average investor and have a good chance of benefitting from the influx of seasonal orders.
(And they might just be a solid way for investors to benefit on a short-term play.)
Retail is the most obvious holiday investment sector, but what about those industries that might not immediately pop up on the radar?
Analysts are mentioning shipping companies like FedEx (NYSE: FDX) and United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS). Although some of these (especially FedEx) may have experienced a general downswing this year, it looks like they are prepared for a recovery this holiday season.
Credit and payment services are the other part of this trifecta.
Just as we expect online retail to experience a swell of activity, we also expect online payment portals like PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) to experience the same. Credit card companies like American Express (NYSE: AXP) see a similar kind of activity as the more popular way to finance holiday purchases.
Even if you, as an investor, don’t feel inclined to ride the holiday market wave, don’t worry. This time of year is beneficial for stocks (especially small caps) across the board, thanks to what most investors call the “Santa Claus Rally.”
The S&P 500 stock average has produced December gains in 82% of the years since 1990. Those gains average almost 1.5%, which is significantly higher than the average return for other months.
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