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The Bears Eat Goldilocks
Stubbornly strong employment data even as interest rates push 5% has encouraged some strategist-types to suggest that the Fed might engineer a “no-landing” outcome – a “goldilocks” ending where inflation magically falls without any serious damage done to the economy, where everything comes out ju-u-u-st right…
Fed’s Balance Sheet Bingo
Two American banks failed. A few more – including a pretty big international bank, Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) – weakened to the point that action was required. So the powers that be – ie the Fed, the Treasury and other banks – have stepped up to offer a backstop intended to assure account holders that they don’t need to pull their funds out.
Bitcoin?!? Umm...No
I don’t always watch CNBC, but when I do, I usually end up shaking my head in disgust… Because the endless stream of fund managers that get invited on the air to share their thoughts on how investors should respond to the crisis du jour are not really there to help anyone at all.
Accounting vs. Reality
You know what makes me nervous? When everybody is saying don’t be nervous… And that’s where we are in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank failure. Yes, depositors have been made whole, equity and bond holders are mostly wiped out. And all the analysts, strategists and economists are out there saying don’t worry, there’s little risk of widespread problems in the banking system…
Powell’s Silicon Valley Prayer
We have reached the point of the Fed’s rate hike campaign where things are starting to break. Yesterday it was the Silicon Valley Bank (NASDAQ: SIVB) that “broke” – account holders pulling their money out of the bank to the point that the bank said it needed $2.5 billion in cash right away to stay afloat.
The Case for Fisker (NSYE: FSR)
Building factories, streamlining the manufacturing process, securing supply chains – there’s a lot that can go wrong for start-ups as they take a new product from the drawing board to the sales floor.
C3.ai Makes it 5 for 5
In Monday’s article “Today’s Trading Plan” I told you that C3.ai (NASDAQ: AI) had beaten earnings expectations in each of the last four quarters. I suggested it for a trade because the share price was squeezing down into the corner of a pennant and a big earnings related move looked likely.
China Fights Back
A response was inevitable. China couldn’t be expected to just stand by while its economy took a punishing bodyblow. It had to counterpunch. I’m a little surprised that it took almost five months. But China has made a move to solidify the position of EV makers and battery makers in its home market…
Today's Trading Plan
So. I bought some C3.ai (NASDAQ: AI) call options right before the close on Friday. Usually, my trading strategy allows for some time for me to let you know what I’m doing…
EVs, China, and The Fed
I recommended electric truck maker Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) back in early January, shares were trading $16.50 to $17.50. Rivian has four things going for it: good truck, plenty of cash, long-term deal with Amazon and an expected 200% jump on revenue for fiscal 2023.
Great Expectations
As you are no doubt well aware of by now, I look at the stock market in terms of “windows of opportunity” for trading purposes. It is often said that the stock market is a discounting mechanism. That is to say, investors and traders try to account for as many variables as possible, assess what that means for the future, and then apply all that to stock prices.
The Case for Nutrien (NYSE: NTR)
The combination of Putin’s war machine ravaging the civilian population of Ukraine, COVID-related disruptions to supply chains and the near total breakdown of U.S. – China relations has broken the globalized economy.