The self-driving car is edging closer to full autonomy.
On Wednesday, November 9th, to much fanfare, a self-driving electric shuttle bus launched its inaugural voyage in Las Vegas.
It drove eight passengers alongside real traffic on a half-mile route, with plans to carry 250,000 passengers over the course of its yearlong test.
Within a day, however, it had already gotten into its first accident.
The shuttle was hit by a truck after the truck’s human driver failed to stop in time. The collision occurred within the self-driving shuttle’s first hour of operation.
Fortunately, no one was hurt.
While the accident put the shuttle out of operation for the rest of the day, it wasn’t the end of its scheduled yearlong trial, which will be continuing as planned.
The autonomous shuttle was built by French firm NAVYA ARMA, and the trial is a partnership between Keolis and AAA.
It’s an embarrassing incident, but it’s not the shuttle’s fault. Ultimately, it just highlights the kinds of human mistakes that self-driving technology hopes to help in preventing.
And there are many companies that are working hard to put their own driverless technology on the roads within the very near future.
Researchers believe that self-driving cars may be safer than driver-operated cars because they are programmed to strictly adhere to traffic laws, they don’t get distracted, and they usually refrain from taking unnecessary risks.
And the following companies might just be the ones to end up dominating the entire industry…
Waymo
Waymo, the autonomous car company from Alphabet (Google’s parent company), has started testing a fleet of self-driving vehicles on public roads without any backup drivers.
These tests, which will include passengers within the next few months, marks an important milestone bringing autonomous vehicle (AV) technology closer to fully operating without any human intervention.
Dozens of companies are testing self-driving technology on public roads across the U.S., and some autonomous features have already been made available in some of today’s cars — like the park-assist feature that can parallel park cars on its own.
But Waymo is believed to be the first company that’s testing vehicles on public roads without a driver ready to take over in emergencies.
At a technology conference in Portugal last Tuesday, Waymo CEO John Krafcik gave the following statement regarding his company’s progress: “Our ultimate goal is to bring our fully self-driving technology to more cities in the U.S. and around the world.”
The test is designed to showcase Waymo’s engineering prowess at a time when traditional automakers and other tech companies, like Uber, are racing to develop similar vehicles.
But Waymo is also planning to use the driverless vehicles to launch a commercial ride-hailing service for the general public but did not offer any details on when, where, or how.
While the prospect of cars without emergency backup drivers may raise some concerns among some passengers, Waymo is highly confident in the safety of its driving technology. It has included backup systems, like a secondary computer, for taking over should the main computer fail.
Waymo, which started as a research and development project for Google in 2009, is maintaining what many in the industry consider a technological advantage over its competitors. The company says its AVs have driven more than 3.4 million miles on actual roads — with safety backup drivers — and have also been running 10 million miles in a virtual simulator every day.
But Waymo isn’t going at it alone. The company has partnered with Fiat Chrysler, Lyft, and Avis in order to bring its driverless, possibly commercial technology to others.
General Motors
General Motors is boasting that it will be the first vehicle manufacturer to introduce “the world’s first mass-producible driverless car.”
In the rapidly developing battle among automakers and tech companies over who will be the first to deploy self-driving cars for everyday public use, GM is laying down its trump card. Its subsidiary Cruise Automation is quickly learning what it takes to put AVs on the road.
Cruise Animation CEO Kyle Vogt says his team has created the world’s first mass-producible car that’s designed to operate without a driver.
He notes that this is not just a concept but instead a fully made automobile with airbags, crumple zones, and comfortable seats. And the cars have been produced by a high-volume plant that can make hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year.
In other words, GM is ready to make self-driving cars at scale as soon as the software and regulations are up to par.
Although GM is directly competing with Waymo, the Google subsidiary limiting the capabilities of its autonomous ride-sharing service to Phoenix, whereas GM states that its Cruise Automation vehicles will be ready for complex traffic conditions in all urban areas.
Component Makers
Indisputably, the most important aspect of autonomous vehicles is their technology. Without it, we’d just have our normal, everyday human-navigated cars.
Last year, a report by Therese Poletti designated chipmakers as having the most potential for self-driving vehicle investors.
She quotes one expert’s prediction that the “world market for automotive semiconductors grew to $30.3 billion (in 2015) and is expected to hit about $41 billion in 2020.”
So, which chip, software, and component manufacturers are best positioned for cashing in as autonomous cars continue hitting the open roads with more onboard technology than ever before?
There are many companies that are trying to grab their own spaces within this sector, but bigger names like Qualcomm and Intel are sure to perform well.
Delphi Automotive spun off from General Motors in 2011 and is one of the largest auto component companies on the planet. This means that Delphi is uniquely qualified for seeing the opportunity of smart, connected vehicles and for capitalizing on that opportunity.
Autoliv was founded back in 1997 with its sole focus being on vehicle safety. But the Swedish company has taken this vehicular revolution seriously and has branched out into developing crash sensors, brake controls, and night driving-assistance features.
Clearly, there is only a small step between those technologies and a fully driverless car. And with an existing suite of technology preventing crashes automatically, you could argue that Autoliv has put the most important part first.
The Bottom Line
The advancements in autonomous automobiles are truly impressive.
But, I’m still a bit of a skeptic… I’m not seeing the mass adoption of self-driving cars taking root.
Particularly in suburban and rural areas, their practicality seems like a waste to me.
Although driverless technology may help in reducing the risk and dangers of driving, it’ll make a lot of other businesses crash and burn, like car insurance, dealerships, auto repair shops, etc.
However, in densely populated areas, they could be quite useful as taxis or as parts of ride-sharing services for Uber and Lyft.
But that’s just my two cents. What do you think?
Hopefully, the rest of the self-driving vehicles will fare much better than the shuttle bus in Las Vegas when they finally hit the roads.
That’s all for now.
Until next time,
John Peterson
Pro Trader Today