Most recent numbers coming in from a variety of reports estimate that the autonomous vehicle market will reach $87 billion by 2030.

The auto industry is ripe for disruption, so it’s no wonder that a handful of firms, both tech and auto, are rushing to develop their own version of the driverless vehicle.

It’s only a matter of time before combustion engines (and their dinosaur manufacturers) become an antiquated thing of the past.

We already know about Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA), Mercedes-Benz, and the other big names in experimental driverless cars.

Actually, some of these vehicles are already past the experimental stage.

The most recent software update for Tesla’s Model S has already enabled autonomous driving; these cars are on the road as we speak.

The first version of Tesla’s Autopilot hardware, consisting of a forward radar, camera, and 360-degree ultrasonics, enables the car to auto-steer on the highway.

There’s also a “summon” feature, which eliminates all that time wasted wandering parking garages to find your car. With Tesla’s new model, your car will come find you.

If it weren’t for a hold-up in regulation, we’d probably all have auto-piloted vehicles.

Wait, aren’t we missing someone?

Up until just a few weeks ago, Apple remained relatively silent about the possibility of getting into the electric or driverless automobile sector.

I have to admit that the driverless car conversation seemed a little lacking without the input of the world’s tech giant.

And honestly, it’s about time Apple started broadening its horizons.

For the past several years, Apple has generated more than half of its revenue from a single product: the iPhone.

Even with the introduction of the Apple Watch, the iPhone remains its hallmark item.

Well, not anymore.

Despite Apple’s hush-hush tendencies about everything it does, the public has strung together the sparse amount of facts and come to the conclusion that yes, Apple is working on its first car.

Let’s review the sleuthing process so far…

Earlier this year, electric car battery maker A123 Systems sued Apple for what it called an “aggressive campaign to poach employees.”

The company lost a handful of PhD-level engineers and tech specialists. Not surprisingly, as a result of Apple’s recruiting spree and its subsequent plans to compete in the same lithium-ion battery sector, A123 was forced to shut down multiple projects.

Just recently, A123 declared bankruptcy. We can’t really blame Apple — that’s capitalist competition, folks.

Personally, I fully support any effort Apple makes to improve the efficiency and life expectancy of its batteries.

If the performance of my iPhone battery is any reflection of how its electric car will operate, count me out. Anyone with an iPhone knows Apple’s battery reputation, and we can’t all have our cars hitting 0% before 4 p.m.

Apple and Tesla Motors have admittedly been going tit-for-tat with employees also, with both firms poaching from the other in an effort to stock up on electric car experts.

Apple has also recruited high-level executives from Fiat-Chrysler and Mercedes-Benz.

There are even further rumors of a potential partnership with BMW. Although unconfirmed, the rumors started after Tim Cook’s visit to BMW’s electric car assembly line in Germany.

In mid-September, Apple had a formal meeting with California’s DMV and sponsors of California’s autonomous vehicle regulation project. Apple officials toured a 2,100-acre WWII-era Naval base called GoMentum Station.

It’s the largest and most secure test facility in the world, already being used by Mercedes-Benz and Honda to test self-driving cars.

The owner and employees of GoMentum Station are subject to Apple’s non-disclosure agreement. All they’ve said so far is, “We can’t tell you anything other than they’ve come in and they’re interested.”

Most experts are still up in the air about whether or not Apple is pursuing fully autonomous vehicles or just sticking to electric.

Either way, Apple’s entry into the automobile market is going to have huge implications for its Silicon Valley competitors as well as traditional auto industry leaders.

History Repeats Itself

For now, Project Titan remains under wraps. Basically, all we know is that Apple is working on a machine with four wheels and a lithium-ion battery, and it (unrealistically?) anticipates a 2019 release.

We don’t know if the car is going to be electric, autonomous, or both…

But we do know of the influence Apple has on the markets it enters, and based on history, I’m sure we can predict the future of the automobile industry.

We all remember what Apple did to cell phones when it entered that market, correct?

On the left, we see all the models of phones prior to the iPhone… We had options, right? Some were better than others, but at least they were there.

On the right, we see how every other phone manufacturer tailored their own designs to be as similar to an iPhone as possible without blatantly stealing intellectual property (although some absolutely toed the line).

The introduction of the iPhone was also the start of the “smartphone” as we know it today — large touchscreens, all-touch interface, and a dynamic system of apps.

Apple defines innovation for cell phones. It perfected the idea of the smartphone.

It’s what it does, right? From phones to tablets, Apple perfects product categories, and autonomous (or electric) cars might just be next for the company.

Apple enthusiasts are already buzzing with excitement around Apple’s integration capabilities. Tim Cook said it best when he called the future the “iOS of everything.”

But that also means diluting the idea pool.

When they were introduced, iPhones sold like hotcakes, so the style and feel of the iPhone became the new status quo for all smartphones.

It raises the argument of whether or not innovation died when the iPhone was born.  

I have to wonder if, in 10 to 15 years, we’re all going to be driving identical models of the iCar — but don’t worry, it will be offered in silver and rose gold.

(Even early concept pictures of the Apple car look like an iPhone. C’mon, Apple.)

It’s a double-edged sword here, and most analysts are torn about whether this next step from Apple is a good thing or bad.

“Cars are enormously complex to deal with compared with what Apple is doing now… There are a lot of moving pieces to get right and it isn’t clear the profit is there.” — Steve Crandall, Omenti Research

Cars just aren’t Apple’s business.

Although Apple clearly dominates the technology sector, and cars are gradually becoming more connected and digital, that doesn’t mean a crossover will be fluid.

The production of a vehicle and the production of a phone have inherently different qualities. I probably don’t need to explain them all here.

Apple’s record is by no means pristine. All of us have at least heard about massive glitches in updated software, and everyone knows about the dumpster fire that was Apple Maps.

Although it might feel like a near-death experience when your phone crashes, it actually is a near-death experience if your car crashes.

The fact that Apple has little experience outside of handheld devices is cause for concern, at least for some.

The fact that it wants to rush this product out the door in less than five years is cause for major concern, at least for me.

Tesla Motors specializes in automobile innovation, and Google has been working on its car project for several years already. 

Apple has some catching up to do. 

For now, the information is minimal, so we’ll just have to keep our ears to the ground.

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