An Irresponsible Message

Given the state of relations between the U.S. and China, China’s ongoing struggle with COVID and its effect on supply chains for companies like Apple, and the importance of the Chinese consumer on companies like Tesla, it’s a pretty good bet that something “China” and “stocks” will be in the news pretty often.

Pharma and Globalization

They say the current shortage of amoxicillin – along with a bunch of other drugs, like ibuprofen and acetaminophen and local anesthetics like lidocaine – is the result of higher than average demand.

Tomorrow's Trading Plan

Back on January 4 and January 7, I was looking at the potential for the stock market to put together a decent rally. Well here we are on January 16 and stocks have been acting downright frisky.

Tesla's Personality Crisis

A modern day Thomas Edison and Henry Ford rolled into one, Musk hit rockstar status in 2018 when he sparked up that joint on Joe Rogan’s podcast. Brilliant, wildly successful, rebellious, sense of humor – my daughter went to Baltimore’s top STEM high school in Baltimore, she said every student there followed him on Twitter.

The Case for Rivian Automotive

There’s nothing sexy about delivery vans (though I will admit that I really like those Mercedes Sprinters). But the numbers that can be generated from supplying vehicles to massive delivery fleets like what FedEX, UPS and even the USPS operates are very seductive. And so it’s an attractive market for EV makers.

Office Parties and Market Trends

I’ve been to enough holiday office parties to know the risks. The last couple months of any year is crunch-time for most businesses. Stress builds. And minds wander to gift shopping, travel planning, teenage kids cramming final exams while grade school kids prep for holiday concerts – distractions that feed the stressful frenzy…

About that Rally...

On Wednesday, I discussed the possibility that a rally might be brewing. For Exhibit A, I pointed out that the S&P 500 held above support at 3,818 for 10 of the previous 11 days. Exhibit B was the simple observation that stock prices in general had held pretty steady, even as the newsflow leaned negative – with a downgrade for bellwether Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and negative demand news for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).

Rally Time?

Well, here we are: 2023. With nearly 2 whole trading days completed for the new year, I thought *now* would be a good time to take a look at the recent action and make some sweeping generalizations about how stocks will trade over the next 12 months.

Goodbye, 2022!

I expect I’m not the only one ready to close the book on 2022. Funny how a 20% drop for the S&P 500 leaves a bitter taste in your mouth… And I gotta say, the fact that stocks will finish in the red today, the final trading day of 2022, seems like a fitting tribute to a lost year for investors.

Growth That Matters

We all like to see the stocks we invest in move higher over time. So we seek out companies that are growing, that sell more products from one year to the next. Because companies that sell more, well, that’s the best way to make sure you’re benefiting from the rising revenue and earnings that typically lead to higher stock prices.

The Case for Amazon

So today, I’m gonna make the case for Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). If you’ve been reading my thoughts on the end of globalization and the Second American Industrialization, then you’re aware that I do not want to own any stocks that have exposure to China (yes, that includes Apple). And I really want as little international exposure as I can manage, though I am not intractable on that point. There is some wiggle room…

Is the Bear Market Back?

The situation in the stock market seems to have taken a nasty turn. From its highs at 4,100 on Tuesday, the S&P 500 has peeled off 150, broken below both its 200-day (black line) and 50-day (purple line) moving averages…