Among the world’s many uncertainties, at least one matter seems to be settled: Batteries and electric motors will have a major role in powering the cars and trucks of our future.
What is far less certain, however, is how large that role will be and how quickly the shift to complete electrification will happen.
But that wheel is already turning, and it’s appearing that 2017 will go down as the beginning of the end for the internal combustion (IC) engine.
Electric vehicles (EVs) no longer seem like a futuristic fever dream, but they do remain a rarity on most American city streets, accounting for less than 1% of the nation’s auto sales.
Yet, when future automobile historians look back, they might pinpoint 2017 as the tipping point for when EVs went from a promising, progressive fad to an industry-wide inevitability…
Pushing for an All-Electric Future
The trend of electric-powered cars has long since surpassed the ubiquitous Toyota Prius, so enjoy the roar of your favorite luxury sports car while you still can — their days are numbered.
According to a report from Reuters, automotive parts supplier Continental is predicting that German manufacturers will cease development of new internal combustion engines in as soon as 2023.
Munich, Germany — home of BMW — is considering banning diesel engines altogether. France and Britain have also recently announced their initiatives to ban both gas- and diesel-powered cars by 2040.
But Continental’s finance chief, Wolfgang Schäfer, told Reuters: “A new generation of combustion engines will again be developed but after that (around 2023), a further development will no longer be economically justifiable because more and more work will switch into electric mobility.”
Also by year 2023, General Motors (NYSE: GM) has decided to create 20 new electric vehicles. By finishing off 2016 as the world’s third-largest automaker, its decision to switch to an all-electric future will definitely have an impact on the global marketplace.
Other automakers like Volvo, Volkswagen, Mercedes, Audi, BMW, and Ford have also announced their plans for adding EVs to their lineups in the near future.
Being committed to a “zero emissions future,” GM is positioning its EV progression with a two-pronged approach: battery electric and hydrogen fuel cells.
GM’s foray into the electric marketplace has already resulted in resounding success with the Chevy Bolt being named Motor Trend’s 2017 Car of the Year and the 2017 North American Car of the Year.
But the automaker’s not stopping with light-duty vehicles. It is also introducing a fuel cell-powered heavy-duty truck with two silent motors known as SURUS (Silent Utility Rover Universal Superstructure).
However, an all-electric future is still decades away…
Is There Still Some Life Left in IC Engines?
Definitely.
This doesn’t look like the end of the internal combustion engine — not yet, anyway.
Mazda (OTC: MZDAF) says it has made big advancements in a combustion method known as homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI), which will result in gasoline engines being 20–30% more efficient than the company’s best current engines.
Researchers around the world have tried to crack this process for years, but it has never really left the laboratory.
Mazda, which at this point makes no hybrid vehicles, calls this latest revolutionary IC engine the Skyactiv-X and says it’s scheduled for a 2019 introduction.
In the simplest terms: The biggest difference with the new engine is that, under certain running conditions, the gasoline is ignited without the use of spark plugs.
Instead, combustion is set off by the extreme heat in the cylinder that results from the piston inside the engine traveling upward and compressing air trapped inside — the same method a diesel engine uses.
The efficiency gains come with the ability to operate using a very lean mixture — very little gas for the amount of air — which a typical spark ignition engine can’t burn cleanly.
Dr. John Heywood, a professor of mechanical engineering at MIT, is predicting that in 2050, 60% of light-duty vehicles will still have combustion engines. He is also predicting that vehicles solely operating on battery power will only make up 15% of sales.
Dr. Heywood, who has questioned whether he would best be serving his students by teaching them combustion or electrochemistry, addresses the challenges of gasoline’s future from a somewhat different angle: The practical limitations of battery electric cars.
He states that holding a gas nozzle transfers 10 megawatts of energy in five minutes, whereas recharging a Tesla at that rate today is just not plausible.
So, the question, for now, is just how much more the gas engine can be improved upon. By 2050, Dr. Heywood’s studies are projecting that today’s average fuel economy could easily be doubled, thanks to aerodynamics, weight reduction, compression ratios, and making better use of available fuels.
Still, the current initiatives to ban future sales of new gas- and diesel-powered cars will take decades to fully take hold, so there’s still some time left for an improved fossil fuel-powered engine to live on…
The Bottom Line
So, when will the last internal combustion engine be built? Not even the experts know for sure…
Advancements in both IC engines, hybrids, and electric vehicles are continuing to inch their ways into the global marketplace, but it will still be years and years before we’ll see one engine type rule the entire space.
It probably won’t even be in this lifetime.
But nonetheless, for the future of our vehicle needs, progress is progress.
That’s all for now.
Until next time,
John Peterson
Pro Trader Today