We’ve all been hearing about drone technology for years now.
It started with military operations and remote killing machines, an idea that has roots as far back as World War I.
In the 1960s and ’70s, the Air Force began really experimenting with unmanned aircraft, mostly for surveillance.
It wasn’t until the late 1980s that computing technology advanced enough to build and control modern-day, missile-enabled drones, and it wasn’t until 2002 that the CIA first used an armed but unmanned Predator drone in an attempted assassination of Osama Bin Laden.
Now, drones come in all different shapes and sizes.
Today, drones have a wide range of purposes and are used for more than mere surveillance of the American people, encroaching on the privacy rights of this country’s citizens, and killing enemy targets.
(Just a quick side note: Industry leaders would like the American people to replace the word “drone” with “Unmanned Aerial Vehicle,” or UAV. I guess they don’t like the connotation that comes with “drone,” but we at Pro Trader Today don’t really care about that.)
Anyway, for the past year, the public has been hearing from delivery-based businesses and online marketplace companies like Amazon regarding their plans to use unmanned drone copters to deliver products quickly and affordably.
Agricultural drones are at the root of major farming innovations and could be a source of billions of dollars in economic returns.
The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that farmers’ return on investment alone could be $12 per acre for corn and $2 to $3 per acre for soybeans and wheat.
The Boston Globe recently published an interesting article devoted to agriculture drones here.
According to drone experts, agriculture drones will make up 80% of the commercial market.
Silicon Valley has taken a huge interest in drone technology as well, especially after the FAA dramatically loosened its regulation standards regarding “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.”
FAA regulations are fairly strict.
The device cannot not weigh more than 55 lbs., must remain within visual line-of-sight of the operator, can fly in daylight only, and permittable altitude is capped at 500 feet.
Although these regulations are not yet finalized, they are likely to be next year.
Here’s the thing: The FAA is handing out exemptions like they’re going out of style.
As of this morning, more than 2,000 petitions of exemption have been granted to private companies “who wish to pursue safe and legal entry into the National Airspace System.”
The exemptions, which are granted by the Secretary of Transportation, are given in order to expand drone activity in the marketplace — an action that is likely to (hopefully) result in significant “tangible economic benefits.”
Money Makes the World Go ‘Round
The Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International projects that the integration of drones would have an $82 billion economic impact between 2015 and 2025.
During this period, the drone industry would create between 70,000 and 100,000 jobs.
The FAA has identified commercial demand for drone systems as a high-priority project, and in response, Silicon Valley has begun actively investing in commercial drone technology.
The industry received $200 million this year alone from venture capitalists — that’s 60% more than last year’s total.
Dajiang Innovation Technology Co. (DJI), which currently possesses 70% of the consumer drone market and is valued at $8 billion, just closed a $75 million round of funding from Accel Partners.
The company generated $500 million in sales for 2014 and $1 billion in 2015. Sales have consistently either tripled or quadrupled every year between 2009 and 2014.
DJI is currently in talks with Wal-Mart to negotiate a potential delivery relationship.
According to the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International, “Every year the ban remains in place, the U.S. loses more than $10 billion in potential economic benefits that drones could provide.”
Like we already mentioned, the agriculture sector is primed to benefit the most from precision farming and the crop monitoring that drones will provide.
Drones are generally more energy efficient, consuming less fuel than most aerial vehicles. Commercialization will make them more affordable as well.
It’s All Fun and Games Until Someone Loses an Eye (Or Their Privacy Rights)
We also now have drones that are available for recreational use.
Ranging from weights of less than an ounce to more than 50 pounds, the Consumer Electronics Association expects these drones to be a big hit for hobbyists this year.
Stores like Sam’s Club expect to sell at least one million drone units over the course of the holiday season.
This is where the debate starts to get a little tangled.
I’m sure most of us are in support of energy efficiency and faster Amazon deliveries. We all want to support the farmers and reap the billions of dollars in economic benefits in the commercial sector.
However, one of the bigger problems here is that commercial drones cannot be confused with your Dad’s model airplane.
Drones are not toys, and we have multiple reported cases of commercial drones actually being a threat to human lives.
I don’t want to sound like a progressive extremist here, but I personally do not have that much faith in the intelligence of most American people in regards to safety and appropriate handling of drone technology.
Basically, I don’t trust a group of angsty teens to follow FAA regulations. It’s enough of a struggle to get them home by curfew.
I don’t trust amateur aviation hobbyists to navigate the airspace and not collide with the airplane that’s carrying hundreds of people.
Just this year, the FAA has received over 1,000 reports of drones flying too close to planes.
I definitely don’t want random people to be able to spy on my property and activities. (Hey, U.S. government — this includes you.)
Ultimately, I don’t think the FAA’s reach is expansive enough to enforce its own regulations. That is, if they ever appear.
So what happens when technology moves faster than the law?
Well, it already is.
The FAA has repeatedly set its own regulation deadlines and has also repeatedly failed to meet those self-established deadlines.
Right now, companies using drones are basically operating in purgatory. The FAA could technically shut them down any day, despite its own failure to stabilize this shaky legal ground.
Despite the Transportation Secretary’s promises to “ramp up enforcement,” I don’t think I’ll believe it until I see it.
The FAA and the Transportation Department are currently developing a drone registration program, but I have my doubts about this as well.
Although registration will likely be accompanied by a “Drone Rule Book,” there’s no way to ensure that anyone is reading those rules, much less following them.
For example, it is illegal to fly a commercial drone over stadiums or major sports events.
However, that didn’t stop a New York science teacher who lost control of his drone while taking pictures of scenery and ended up crashing into the stands of the U.S. Open.
It also didn’t prevent one government official from having too many cocktails and crashing his drone on the White House lawn.
The registration program definitely fails to ensure that drone owners actually know what they’re doing.
How about the guy (who has yet to be caught) who used a drone to transport five pounds of meth across the U.S. border into Tijuana? I think we can all assume that he probably didn’t read the rules.
Sorry to ruin the fun, America. I just don’t trust all of you with potentially deadly, camera-enabled flying machines.
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