Let me start by saying that I adore my grandma. I’m closer with her than pretty much anyone else, and I would choose to spend time with her before any of my friends. (Sorry guys, but it isn’t even a question.)
Spending time with my grandma, or Nana, as I call her, is good for a few things:
- Food
- Playing Scrabble
- Going “off the grid” (she’s never had Internet)
- Knowing when tech stocks are about to tumble
That last one might seem like a stretch, but hear me out.
This has been a personal rule of mine. It’s not scientifically proven or tested, but I will stand behind it:
Any trend bandwagon on which grandparents gladly jump is a trend that’s about to meet its demise… probably by crashing and burning in a fiery blaze.
When technology that’s supposed to be “cutting edge” and “modern” gets into the hands of my Nana — who’s never even had dial-up and thinks Google is a series of printed encyclopedias — something is wrong.
Last weekend, Nana asked me what she had to do to “acquire a facing book.”
So there we have it, folks. I’m declaring my prediction now:
Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) as we know it is dying.
I give it three to five years before we joke about “Likes” in the same way we joke about the “Top 8” from MySpace.
Underground to Mainstream
The social media giant started out small in Mark Zuckerberg’s dorm room as a way to compare the “hotness” of various people attending Harvard University. (Honestly, what more can you expect from a hormonal college sophomore with an affinity for hacking and coding?)
By 2005, it had expanded to a handful of universities and businesses but remained a college-oriented program. There was a level of exclusivity and room for growth.
Fast-forward to today, and 62% of America’s adult population uses Facebook.
The biggest growth in user base last year was among adults over the age of 55. Facebook added 12.4 million new users from this age range, a massive 80.4% growth.
Once grandparents get involved, whatever it is just stops being “cool.”
Interviews with a few teen and college-aged individuals show this pretty clearly:
“Facebook, I think, is kind of falling off the grid.” — Margaret, high school sophomore
“…my mom might put something embarrassing on Facebook.” — Leah, high school sophomore
“…kind of like an older generation type of thing.” — Carrie, college freshman
“It became more, like, older people.” — Elise, college freshman
3.3 million American users ages 13 to 17 years old have left Facebook since 2011, as well as another 3.4 million people who are 18 to 24.
Facebook’s chief financial officer admitted on an earnings call with analysts that the company has noted “a decrease in daily users, specifically among younger teens.”
Even accounting for those who aged out of the youth demographics since the last report, there are still 6.7 million fewer people in these demographics, meaning younger people are either getting rid of their accounts or not signing up for Facebook at all.
But this isn’t solely about “not being cool” or trying to prevent your Nana from seeing pictures of your social life. I’m talking about the point in time when technology completely saturates its possible customer base.
Basically, Facebook has peaked. It’s the same thing that happened to social media platforms before it and the same reason you probably don’t know who this person is:
He’s the founder of MySpace, and he’s no longer relevant.
Immunity to the Virus
Researchers at Princeton compare this effect to infectious disease:
“Ideas, like diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out.”
What does this mean for Facebook?
The company already has more users throughout its Facebook Messenger and WhatsApp programs than Facebook proper. Facebook’s portfolio boasts 1.5 billion monthly chat app users — 800 million on WhatsApp and 700 million on Facebook Messenger — compared to 1.49 billion on Facebook itself.
According to analysts, that’s a strong signal towards change — away from traditional social networking and towards a variety of messaging and other social media outlets.
Just to clarify: The social media industry as a whole is not struggling, and there is still a steady upward trend in the total number of individuals who log on daily to contribute to social media.
By the end of 2016, there will be an expected 2.13 billion people using social media. That’s a huge increase from 2010, with 970 million active users. Even more, projections indicate that the number of social media users will exceed 2.4 billion in 2018.
So I wouldn’t predict that Zuckerberg is headed for poverty. I also don’t believe that a handful of teenagers can predict the future of one of Silicon Valley’s most successful and widely used tech giants.
I would, however, expect to see some dramatic changes throughout the Facebook program and the industry as a whole. I also wouldn’t be surprised if more unique and specialized programs (like Snapchat, Vine, and Tango) experience big growth in the future.
The trends are clear: Facebook’s throne might be undermined, after all.
{$custom_ptt_jessica_signoff}