Not a week has gone by since the controversy with Donald Trump’s tweet regarding the newly ordered Boeing special-edition 747-8s ear-marked to replace the existing Air Force 1 fleet in the early 2020s, and the Donald is once again in the news, threatening to cancel a high-profile defense contract.
This time, the target in the president-elect’s sights is none other than the famous, often infamous, F-35 Lightning II fighter aircraft.
His go-to weapon, as usual, was Twitter.
This time, however, Trump just may have a point.
Projected to cost around $1.45 trillion (yes, with a T), the program has been one of the costliest, if not THE costliest, weapons programs in all of history.
A bigger problem, however, is that for all of that cost and what will be decades of development, delivery, and maintenance costs, the F-35 isn’t all that great of a product.
Born in Bureaucracy
Slower, less maneuverable, and less dependable than its competition (or even some of the warplanes it will be replacing, such as the F-18 Hornet and the aging but still formidable F-15 Eagle), this airplane is the predictable result of a product designed by committee.
The main stumbling block behind its creation was the need to replace a number of currently fielded aircraft with a single airframe solution.
The F-35, once in service, was envisioned to replace the F-18, the Harrier Jump Jet, and the F-16 Falcon. Designed to take advantage of the latest stealth technology, it was supposed to be the universal go-to for the Air Force, Navy, and Marines.
The result falls short of the requirements, however — at least according to the pilots who have been testing it.
In fact, the only department in which the F-35 beats its predecessors is costliness.
Not exactly the kind of improvement the Pentagon was looking for.
And that’s just the beginning.
Some of the latest criticisms of the troubled program state that the aircraft cannot function in the rain, a definite deal-breaker for three branches of service expecting to use the system in all possible combat environments.
Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT), the main contractor behind the F-35, was down 2.5% on news of this tweet; Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), another heavyweight defense contractor involved in the program, took a similar hit.
Though Trump’s tweets have had a history of being more bluster than substance, this one might actually have some valid rationale behind it.
Mediocrity At Any Cost
Though the total $1.45 trillion price tag will take decades to accrue, this single program’s addition to the $700 billion/year annual defense budget is questionable at best — especially considering that the product has failed to outperform the proven designs it was created to succeed.
In a way, the F-35’s greatest effect as a weapon system may just be against the very people it’s designed to protect — the U.S. taxpayers who have to foot the giant bill.
The big question remaining now is: will Trump actually make good on his plan to cross this item off the DoD’s wish list — even if it’s at the cost of support from some of the world’s biggest defense contractors?
That remains to be seen.
Until next time,
John Peterson
Pro Trader Today