EVs, China, and The Fed

I recommended electric truck maker Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) back in early January, shares were trading $16.50 to $17.50. Rivian has four things going for it: good truck, plenty of cash, long-term deal with Amazon and an expected 200% jump on revenue for fiscal 2023.

Great Expectations

As you are no doubt well aware of by now, I look at the stock market in terms of “windows of opportunity” for trading purposes. It is often said that the stock market is a discounting mechanism. That is to say, investors and traders try to account for as many variables as possible, assess what that means for the future, and then apply all that to stock prices.

The Case for Nutrien (NYSE: NTR)

The combination of Putin’s war machine ravaging the civilian population of Ukraine, COVID-related disruptions to supply chains and the near total breakdown of U.S. – China relations has broken the globalized economy.

WWWD? (What would Warren Do?)

We’ve talked a lot about the rising tensions between the U.S. and China. That spy balloon floating across the continental United States certainly didn’t help smooth any of the animosity between the two countries…

Moving the Goalposts

On February 2, I told you that a window of opportunity for stocks to move lower had opened. There were a couple reasons I thought that the bullish mood that carried the S&P 500 10% higher during the first month of 2023 might be souring.

The Case for C3.ai

It’s not unusual for an emerging investment trend that’s been percolating to burst onto the scene with a frenzy of hype after a momentous event. This happened for Artificial Intelligence (AI) two weeks ago when Microsoft released a flurry of news about the ChatGPT AI app.

Southwest Airline's Sugar High

The first one, at Christmas time, was bad weather. Not much anyone can do about that. Southwest had no choice but to cancel 2500 flights. The second time Southwest ruined thousands of people’s travel plans, that was all on Southwest. The airline’s phone system and scheduling system both failed.

Chinese Balloons and Philippine Military Bases

Almost a year ago, Russian president Vladimir Putin officially broke the globalized world economy when he decided to unleash hell on his neighbor, Ukraine. Now it’s true, the fault lines of the quid pro quo economic system politely called globalization were laid bare by the COVID pandemic and the breakdown of the supply chain between the U.S. and China.

Coming up Roses

As of yesterday, pretty much everything we’ve been talking about over the last month blossomed. We were looking for the S&P 500 to take a run at 4100. It did even better, closing yesterday at 4179. We were looking for Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) to make a convincing move above $100 that would carry it up to $110. Amazon finished yesterday at $112.91.

The Strong Arm of U.S. Chip Rules

If you aren’t aware of the Biden administration’s actions regarding China’s semiconductor industry, it’s pretty simple: American companies have been banned from selling advanced semiconductors to China. The ban also covers the equipment needed to make and test semiconductors.

The Case Against Intel

Last week, semiconductor giant Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) reported earnings that were…um…bad. Intel shares closed at $30.03 on Thursday, January 26. The stock opened for trading Friday morning at $27.07, down 10% after a surprise earnings miss.

Trading Plan Update

I love it when a plan comes together. And it’s even better when that plan involves making some loot. We had been looking for the right entry point for an Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) trade