Eyes on the Prize

Right now, the global economy is, umm, uncertain. There’s open war in Europe, a cold war with China, banks are failing, inflation remains way too high, interest rates may get pushed even higher, and the U.S. economy is facing a credit crunch that will certainly lead to a recession – if one hasn’t already started…

Mistakes Will Be Made

the Fed hiked interest rates yet again on Wednesday. I actually set my alarm for 2 pm ET so I could see what happened. The Fed delivered a 25 basis point hike, as expected. And that hike took the Fed Funds rate (the interest rate the Fed charges banks to borrow from the Fed) to the 4.75%-5% range.

The Bears Eat Goldilocks

Stubbornly strong employment data even as interest rates push 5% has encouraged some strategist-types to suggest that the Fed might engineer a “no-landing” outcome – a “goldilocks” ending where inflation magically falls without any serious damage done to the economy, where everything comes out ju-u-u-st right…

Fed’s Balance Sheet Bingo

Two American banks failed. A few more – including a pretty big international bank, Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) – weakened to the point that action was required. So the powers that be – ie the Fed, the Treasury and other banks – have stepped up to offer a backstop intended to assure account holders that they don’t need to pull their funds out.

Bitcoin?!? Umm...No

I don’t always watch CNBC, but when I do, I usually end up shaking my head in disgust… Because the endless stream of fund managers that get invited on the air to share their thoughts on how investors should respond to the crisis du jour are not really there to help anyone at all.

Accounting vs. Reality

You know what makes me nervous? When everybody is saying don’t be nervous… And that’s where we are in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank failure. Yes, depositors have been made whole, equity and bond holders are mostly wiped out. And all the analysts, strategists and economists are out there saying don’t worry, there’s little risk of widespread problems in the banking system…

Powell’s Silicon Valley Prayer

We have reached the point of the Fed’s rate hike campaign where things are starting to break. Yesterday it was the Silicon Valley Bank (NASDAQ: SIVB) that “broke” – account holders pulling their money out of the bank to the point that the bank said it needed $2.5 billion in cash right away to stay afloat.

Today's Trading Plan March 8, 2023

I turned the TV on just after 10 am yesterday to watch Fed Chair Powell’s annual appearance before the Senate yesterday. It was a shameless display of self-serving Senators grandstanding to reinforce the entrenched beliefs of the various constituents that voted them into their lavish positions

The Case for Fisker (NSYE: FSR)

Building factories, streamlining the manufacturing process, securing supply chains – there’s a lot that can go wrong for start-ups as they take a new product from the drawing board to the sales floor.

C3.ai Makes it 5 for 5

In Monday’s article “Today’s Trading Plan” I told you that C3.ai (NASDAQ: AI) had beaten earnings expectations in each of the last four quarters. I suggested it for a trade because the share price was squeezing down into the corner of a pennant and a big earnings related move looked likely.

China Fights Back

A response was inevitable. China couldn’t be expected to just stand by while its economy took a punishing bodyblow. It had to counterpunch. I’m a little surprised that it took almost five months. But China has made a move to solidify the position of EV makers and battery makers in its home market…

Today's Trading Plan

So. I bought some C3.ai (NASDAQ: AI) call options right before the close on Friday. Usually, my trading strategy allows for some time for me to let you know what I’m doing…