China's Toothless Micron Ban

A couple months ago, China announced that it had placed Boise, Idaho based memory chip maker Micron Technology (NYSE: MU) under review for national security reasons. Of course China wants to imply that the U.S. chips can pose some kind of risk, like the U.S. government hacking cell phones made in China with Micron chips and stealing sensitive data

We Have a Breakout

Ladies and gentleman: we have a break out. This a 1-month candlestick chart of the S&P 500. Each glyph represents one day’s action, and the glyphs are called candlesticks because, well, they look like candlesticks. At least the long ones do…

The Cartman Doctrine

It’s pretty obvious that many U.S. companies are already implementing their own Cartman Doctrine – they are taking their supply chains and going home, or, at least to more friendly countries that don’t carry the geopolitical risk that China does.

Position Updates May 15, 2023

Both of the AI stocks I’ve recommended, C3.ai (NASDAQ: AI) and Schrodinger (NASDAQ: SDGR) are looking good. C3.ai is flying today after it pre-announced a better than expected quarter. The stock was crushed 6 weeks ago by a hatchet job from short seller Hindenburg Research. But shares found support at the 200-day moving average. And this quarterly earnings report should help convince investors that the Hindenburg short report was a bunch of hooey.

The Case for Lemonade (NASDAQ: LMND)

I Got a Fever… I got curious back in 2008-2009. The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) was steamrolling every aspect of the economy. Advertising was especially hard hit. Newspapers failed, magazines got really thin… but TV was still awash in GEICO ads. GEICO’s “Caveman” was voted America’s favorite advertising icon in 2008…

EV Maker Beating Inflation

It’s always something. If it’s not one thing, it’s another… If it’s not fear of a government debt default overshadowing the good good vibes from a surprisingly cool read on inflation, it’s a regional bank mini-crisis sapping the fun out of a better than expected earnings season…

Betting On Congressional Dysfunction

I keep hearing that the so-called “smart-money” is betting big money that U.S. Treasury bond prices will head lower. The rumor mill has been spinning the story that hedge funds have taken massive short positions on Treasury bonds that will pay off when bond prices fall.

Yeti Vuitton

Brand identity is a powerful force, and I love consumer discretionary stocks for their potential to gain customers for life. Like Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX), Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) and Louis Vuitton (NASDAQ: LVMH). Not that I think Yeti will be the next Louis Vuitton…

Breaking Out...Or Breaking Down

The 52-week high for the S&P 500 is up around 4,300. One year ago, on Star Wars Day (May the 4th) 2022, the index closed exactly at 4,300. Then on August 16, the S&P 500 closed at 4305, after failing to move above the 200-day moving average, which, on that day, stood at 4,325. Both of the highs – May 4 and August 16 – were followed by some pretty nasty drops.

Asleep At The Wheel?

With the fire sale purchase of First Republic Bank, JP Morgan’s (NYSE: JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon told the world that “This part of the crisis is over…The American banking system is extraordinarily sound.” Well. I know I feel better. Don’t you?

AI - Artificial Inflation

Pepsi’s Frito-lay division reported a 16% gain in revenue even though sales volume was flat from the year before. It would be interesting if I could tell you that the revenue gain came from some startling Artificial Intelligence application that boosted margins for Dorito’s. But there was another kind of AI at work – artificial inflation.

Pittsburgh Rare Market

As investors, we try to come up with the perfect recipe for selecting the companies we invest in. Rising dividends, expanding market share, positive cash flow, whatever it may be. And there are plenty of examples of great investors we can learn from and copy. Warren Buffett is a common example, and for very good reason. He follows a simple recipe and he knows exactly what the final dish will look like.